Global Business Economics and Finance

Brexit Company Case Study

Questions

A. Project background

On the 23 June 2016 in the referendum the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. This result shattered both political and economic landscape of Europe and the World. However, from formal point of view the process of leaving does not seem to be an easy task. On 29 March 2017, the UK government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, what means that the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. Still the negotiations are on-going and the perspective of the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement are more and more likely.

B. Project question

Analyse potential impact of the Brexit on a company of your choice trading on the UK as well as on the EU-27 markets. What kind of benefits and threats could it face? Develop a strategy it could use to exploit potential opportunities and avert threats?

C. Project specifications

  • 1. Identify and describe theory behind the trade integration. Support your analysis with statistical data on trade in different areas like goods, services etc between the EU-27 and the UK with special focus on the industry of your chosen company.
  • 2. Identify possible models of economic relations between the UK and EU-27 after the Brexit and attempt to identify likeliness. As examples use current EU economic cooperation agreements with third countries.
  • 3. Identify theoretical opportunities and threats posed by the Brexit which the company could face in different scenarios. Anchor it in the theory and data identified in point 1.
  • 4. Design a strategy which could exploit potential opportunities and avert threats. This strategy should be rooted in analysis performed in points 1, 2 and 3.

Solution

Executive Summary

In the pre-Brexit scenario, the EU played a vital part in offering plenty of advantages to the member countries such as free trade, free labor movement, inward investment from the European companies, etc. Further, various critics argued the fact that EU in total played a vital role in hampering the UK capability to proper in an effective manner. In the present report, the major emphasis is on Brexit exit from the EU. The report initiates with the introduction followed by the evaluation of the Brexit on the bank (Deutsche bank) that is traded both in UK and EU-27 market. The benefits and threats are discussed accordingly together with the strategy that to exploit the opportunities and avert the threats.

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Introduction

Britain exit from the EU will have major issues for politics, economics, and citizens across Europe. The major influences will be seen in the financial domain and majorly by the investment banks that function within the central hub. Moreover, the access will be lost to the European market. Britain will face major issues: at 6.6% of gross national value added it contained the largest financial sector among the countries of Europe in tune to the economy size. Financial services exports will play a significant role, and 44% will proceed to the EU. In the absence of the surplus that is generated from the investment banking services to the EU customers, the current account deficit of Britain will edge higher by 40%. The financial industry can be said to be the vital factor for Britain and defines the most important sector for Britain. In this scenario, Deutsche Bank is selected for the study as it has got its existence in the UK and EU-27 markets (Collins, 2017).

Theory behind the trade integration

Constructivism and Brexit

Constructivism is said to focus on different type of norms conventions and rules that help to mould up the international and European political system. It cannot be derived as the major material capabilities that can be used by us for reviewing our position in the world. Also, it helps to focus on the different type of Identity that can be formed by playing major roles in the foreign policy decision making processes. When analysingBrexit, the major National interests of the whole of Britain and Europe will be formed by what role they are playing to change the world. According to the constructivists, the superior understanding of Brexit will be required for getting an explanation of the way in which Europe and the United Kingdom are constructing their identities while competing with each other. Britain can use its image of great power and political structure to explain the approach and also the commitment to come closer to the ideas of the free movement of people. Some economists have also been accused of using politics before economics in their approach to following the Brexit negotiations (Collins, 2017). In remaining Europe, it has also been observed that political projects having carried out where political ideas are being put before the economic plans.

Benefits and Threats

Immigration

It has been observed that the total net migration from Europe has been doubled after the year 2012 amounting to 183000 in March 2015. The immigration of people from the European Union is also helping to boost the workforce in and around with a percentage of 0.5 % every year. The boost has not only to have the country to support economic stability but also have helped to push the wage growth and inflation rates by keeping interest rates lower for longer periods. The power of the United Kingdom will be based on the restrictions of immigration from Europe that will be decided by the future relationship with the European Union. For Britain to retain the full access to the market, it will need to keep a free flow of movement between the labours of the United Kingdom and the Union. This has also been considered to be very unlikely because the policy is more likely to change and restrict the number of low skilled workers that are entering the country and attracting more highly skilled workers at the same time (Foster, 2017). Hence, it may cause a problem for the fluid sectors but will help to improve the high skilled labour workers in the country. Overall, to a total shift in the policies will be specifically designed by the immigration requirements of Britain.

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(Brexit, 2016)

Apart from immigration from EU, the British Government considers the overall policy majority over the matter that pertains to the British voter as either unanimity decision are considered orr the EU will have no right to act. Even when it comes to immigration, Britain will not need to accept free movement of worker from other EU countries as the Britain public must have a balance in tune to the advantage of EU membership.

Trade and manufacturing

The old trade and manufacturing statistics have helped to analyse that the European Union is one of the biggest destinations for the export of British goods. This figure will become much bigger in nature if all the states of the United Kingdom trade freely with the help of the free trade agreement of the European Union. Hence, it can be seen that there will be better prospect when it comes to trade and manufacturing. It will lead to potential advantages for both the sides. Some of the agreement state that 63% of the goods exported from Britain a link to the membership of the European Union (Grierson, 2017). Hence, it is believed that after the onset of Brexit there will be more advantages for both sides because of the cover of commercial arrangements that will be made in accordance to the favourable and highly portable trade agreements. If any problem arises then the exporters would face some of the additional course that is complied with the rules of origin of the European Union if they were outside the single market.

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(Brexit, 2016)

However, these factors will be stated to be organised rather than saying them to be a barrier of trading. It is also believed that the exporters will be facing problems after the Brexit vote are unfounded. It should also be observed that the benefits of being in the European Union are much smaller than the benefits that were being seen by people a few years ago when Brexit would have been a far bigger deal as compared to today's economy (Cohen, 2016). The effects may vary across different sectors because Brexit has given important opportunities to the Non-European countries by allowing them to have brokers in their trade deals even after having and unilateral free trade policy. It can also be observed that the Non-European Union countries will be much more comfortable in negotiating with Britain because of the bureaucratic procedure followed by them. Switzerland has also showing production sectors in the economy which are much more uncertain when compared to the outcomes of that service (Grierson, 2017). It have also been observed that the range of various potential issues is much more differentiable because of the production sectors which are much more dependent on the United Kingdom's agreement over the trading facts of the European Union and any other nature of such agreement (Grierson, 2017). There are also various types of downsides and uneven potentials when compared to the other opportunities. If in any way Britain can use the new found freedom to negotiate its trading agreement for good effect, it is certainly possible that the European Union can leave the external sector for the long run.

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